The University of Michigan’s 72nd Annual
Economic Outlook Conference
November 21–22, 2024
Daniil Manaenkov
Dr. Daniil Manaenkov has been engaged in tracking and forecasting the U.S. economy for almost 20 years. He has been leading RSQE’s national forecasting team since 2013. Prior to joining RSQE, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where he managed the bank's macroeconomic forecasting model. Daniil testifies regularly in front of the Michigan Legislature and briefs the Governor of Michigan annually on RSQE's national economic outlook. Governor Rick Snyder sent Daniil a personal thank-you letter for his contributions to the state budget process. Daniil frequently shares his views on national economic conditions with various media outlets, with the list of recent interviews featuring CNBC, CGTN America, WXYZ-TV Detroit, NPR's Marketplace, and the Wall Street Journal. Daniil also leads RSQE’s development and adoption of cutting-edge time series and machine learning forecasting methods and contributes to RSQE's forecasting project with the City of Detroit. Daniil’s main areas of expertise are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and applied econometrics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota, and holds a Master of Science degree in applied mathematics and physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Daniil recently coauthored The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2022–2024, and The Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022–2027.
Nirupama Rao
Nirupama Rao is an Assistant Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan. Her research largely centers on the economic effects of fiscal policy, focusing on the impact of tax policy on firm production, investment and pricing decisions.
She is a recipient of the National Tax Association Dissertation Award and the 2019 Journal of Public Economics Atkinson award for the best paper in the published in the prior three years. She completed her PhD in economics at MIT in June 2010 where she previously earned her undergraduate degree. Prior to graduate school, she worked at the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. She recently served as a Senior Economist from 2015 through 2016 at the Council of Economic Advisers in Washington, D.C.
Joanne Hsu
Joanne W. Hsu (pronounced “shoo”) is the Director of the Surveys of Consumers and a Research Associate Professor at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. She earned her PhD in economics at the University of Michigan and her AB in economics and international relations at Brown University. Her research is primarily in the fields of household finance, labor economics, and survey methods, with a current focus on financial sophistication and cognition, and consumer experiences with debt. She previously served as a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, where her work included the Survey of Consumer of Finances and the consumption forecast, as well as a visiting professor at the Department of Economics, Howard University.
David Wilcox
David Wilcox is senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. His current research focuses on the US macroeconomy and monetary policy. He also is director of US economic research at Bloomberg Economics.
Prior to joining the Institute, he served for many years on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, including as deputy director (2001–11) and director (2011–18) of the Division of Research and Statistics. In the latter role, he functioned as the chief economist of the division, a senior advisor to three successive chairs of the Federal Reserve Board, the division's lead for strategic direction, and its chief manager. Wilcox put special emphasis on improving diversity and inclusion, both at the Federal Reserve and in the economics profession.
He also served as assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department from 1997 to 2001, and as a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers from 1994 to 1995.
His recent publications include "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?" (with Stephanie Aaronson, Mary Daly, and William Wascher), forthcoming in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity; "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy" (with David Reifschneider and William L. Wascher) in the IMF Economic Review; and "The Unequal Distribution of Economic Education: A Report on the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender of Economics Majors at U.S. Colleges and Universities" (with Amanda Bayer) in the Journal of Economic Education.
Wilcox received a doctoral degree in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Williams College. He currently serves as chair of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, which advises US federal statistical agencies on issues of statistical methodology and other technical matters.
Jaeger Nelson
Jaeger Nelson is Chief of the Fiscal Studies Unit in the Macroeconomic Analysis Division at the Congressional Budget Office. In that capacity, he leads the team responsible for analyzing fiscal policy’s effect on the economy and the feedback from those economic changes onto the federal budget. Prior to becoming Chief, Jaeger was a Principal Analyst within the unit he now leads. During his time as an analyst, he worked on estimating the economic effects of pandemic-related legislation, Social Security, and public health programs. Before joining CBO in 2018, Jaeger earned an undergraduate degree in economics and finance from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and a Ph.D. in economics from Indiana University.
Wendy Edelberg
Wendy Edelberg is the director of The Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. Edelberg joined Brookings in 2020, after more than fifteen years in the public sector. She is also a principal at WestExec Advisors. Most recently, she was chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office. Prior to working at CBO, Edelberg was the executive director of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, which released its report on the causes of the financial crisis in January 2011. Previously, she worked on issues related to macroeconomics, housing, and consumer spending at the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during two administrations. Before that, she worked on those same issues at the Federal Reserve Board. In 2022, Edelberg was appointed as a co-chair of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Climate and Macroeconomics Roundtable.
Edelberg is a macroeconomist whose research has spanned a wide range of topics, from household spending and saving decisions, to the economic effects of fiscal policy, to systemic risks in the financial system. In addition, at CBO and the Federal Reserve Board, she worked on forecasting the macroeconomy. Edelberg received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago, and a B.A. from Columbia University.
David W. Berson
David W. Berson is Chief US Economist for Cumberland Advisors, a mid-sized wealth management firm based in Sarasota, FL. He provides analyses of the US economy and impacts on financial markets for Cumberland's board of directors, portfolio managers, and clients. Previously, he was the Chief Economist for Nationwide Insurance, where he managed a team of economists and was in charge of providing forecasts and analyses of the economy as well as financial and insurance markets that were used by Nationwide's senior leadership team and business units for strategic and corporate planning purposes. He also acted as Nationwide's primary spokesperson on economic and financial market conditions, prospects, and policy. Berson was previously SVP & Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analytics at the PMI Group, where he headed modeling and forecasting for the company. Prior to that, he was VP & Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, where he advised the company on national and regional economic, housing, and mortgage market policy and conditions. He has also been Chief Financial Economist and Head of Regional Economic Analysis at Wharton Econometrics, Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate School. His government experiences have included Staff Economist on the Council of Economic Advisers and Economic Analyst at the Treasury Department and the Office of the Special Trade Representative. Berson is currently President of the National Business Economic Issues Council (NBEIC), is a former President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), and is a frequent speaker to media and industry groups on the economy, housing, and financial markets. He has a BA in History and Economics from Williams College, a Master of Public Policy and a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan, and has a Certified Business Economist (CBE) designation from NABE.
Gabriel Ehrlich
Gabriel Ehrlich is an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan, where he is the Director of the University’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). Gabe oversees RSQE’s forecasts of the U.S. and Michigan economies, and he presents regularly to the Michigan Legislature and Governor on Michigan’s economic and fiscal prospects. Prior to joining RSQE, Gabe worked as an economic forecaster and analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.
Scott Powell
Scott Powell, Ph.D. is the chief data officer for the State of Michigan. As the founding director of the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics (MCDA), Scott leads efforts to enhance and promote evidence-based decision making across state government. He directs the MCDA team in turning data into actionable information, specializing in advanced analytics, program evaluation, and administrative data systems. His recent work focuses on developing cross-agency collaboration and analytic capacity in state government and promoting data literacy in the public sector.
Before taking on his current role, Scott served as the center’s research director, leading numerous projects evaluating the effectiveness of state programs in labor and higher education. Prior to joining the State of Michigan, Scott held appointments as a researcher with the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, where he developed multiple research projects for the State of New Jersey, and as an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee.
Scott is a native of the Flint, Michigan area and holds degrees from Michigan State University and Ohio State University.
Elaine Buckberg
Elaine Buckberg, Ph.D. is a senior fellow of the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University. Previously, she was Chief Economist of General Motors (GM) from 2018 to March 2023. At GM, Elaine was responsible for assessing the impact of worldwide economic developments on the corporation, and for providing advice on various competitive and economic policy issues.
From 2013-16, Elaine served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy Coordination in the Office of Economic Policy at the U.S. Treasury Department. She has also worked in economic consulting, at the Brattle Group and NERA Economic Consulting, in finance at Morgan Stanley, and at the International Monetary Fund. Elaine received her Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and her B.A. from Yale.
Kristin Dziczek
Kristin Dziczek is a policy advisor in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s research, policy, and public engagement division. Her research focuses on the economic impacts of the transition to low-carbon and automated transportation.
Dziczek served as the senior vice president of research at the non-profit Center for Automotive Research (CAR) from 2005-2022. Before that, she was the associate director of the Michigan Manufacturing Technology Center and worked for the U.S. Congress, International Union UAW, and General Motors Corporation.
Dziczek received her B.A., M.P.P., and M.S. all from the University of Michigan.
John J. Murphy
John Murphy is the senior North American automotive equity research analyst. In this role, he advises investors on automotive manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, and related businesses. Key pillars of his research portfolio include Who Makes the Car, which examines component systems and electrification, and Car Wars, an annual study of the automotive product pipeline. He also publishes a yearly Dealer Manual, a comprehensive review of the retail distribution channel. Murphy hosts BofA's annual New York Auto Summit, bringing together investors and companies to foster strategic discussions around capital allocation. Murphy is frequently cited in the financial and automotive press and has been named to Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team for the last 17 years. In 2023, Murphy was inducted into the Automotive Hall of Fame as an Industry Influencer. Prior to joining the Merrill Lynch Auto group in 1999, he worked at National Economic Research Associates (NERA) in the banking and finance practice. For more information about any awards cited, visit https://rsch.baml.com/awards.
Welcome - John Leahy
John Leahy is Chair of Economics, and Allen Sinai Professor of Macroeconomics and Public Policy. John is a macroeconomist with interests in monetary economics and economic theory. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton, and has held positions at Harvard, Boston University and New York University before joining the faculty at Michigan. He has consulted at the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and has served as Editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. He also served as Coeditor of the American Economic Review.
Presiding - Saul Hymans
Saul Hymans is Emeritus Professor of Economics and Statistics and held the position of Director of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan during 1981-2008. He has been at the University of Michigan since 1964, and served as chair of the Department of Economics during 1977-80. Saul received the national Blue Chip Annual Economic Forecasting Award (AEFA, formerly the Silbert Award) in 1984 and 1987, and is the first person to have received the AEFA twice.
Hymans graduated from Harvard College and holds a Ph.D. in economics and an M.A. in statistics from the University of California, Berkeley. He served as senior staff economist on the President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1967-68, as a member of the Board of Directors of the National Bureau of Economic Research during 1989-2010, and as the U.S. forecaster for the Pacific Economic Outlook Project of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council during 1988-2008.
The author of numerous journal articles, chapters, and research papers, Hymans has also traveled to the Soviet Union on a U.S. scientific exchange delegation and has been a visiting scholar in Israel, Stockholm, and Hong Kong.
Presiding - Michael McWilliams
Michael McWilliams is a Senior Economist at RSQE. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, and he has also received an M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science. At RSQE, Michael assists with forecasts of the Michigan economy and leads the development of state tax revenue projections. He also participates in RSQE's local economic forecasts for the City of Detroit, Oakland County, MI, and Washtenaw County, MI. In 2018, Michael coauthored an RSQE report on the economic impacts of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI).
Michael’s personal research focuses on a range of topics in environmental and natural resource economics. During his graduate study, Michael interned at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality.
Presiding - George Fulton
George A. Fulton is a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, and a director emeritus of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics in the Department of Economics. He also is a former Board Chair of the U-M Children’s Centers. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan and is a lifetime member of the U-M Alumni Association.
Dr. Fulton forecast economic and fiscal activity at the national, state, and local levels for over 40 years. He provided testimonies on the economic and revenue outlooks to the Michigan legislature and administration twice a year from 1992 to 2016, as well as delivering a keynote presentation at the Governor’s Economic Outlook Briefing annually from 1984 to 2016. In 2015, he was appointed by the governor and state treasurer to a three-person panel to evaluate and approve the City of Detroit’s revenue forecasts that form the basis for the City’s yearly budgets. He continues to serve in that role.
One focus of his has been to portray the economy to non-economists, including to alumni at Michigania’s faculty forum, to the U-M Retirees Association, to the Wolverine Caucus (alumni working in and around the State Capitol), and during the Road Scholars Tour connecting faculty with residents in communities throughout Michigan. He has received numerous recognitions for his work, including: the inaugural Lifetime Achievement Award for Excellence in Economic and Demographic Analysis—since named in his honor—from REMI, the nation’s most prominent regional forecasting and economic analysis organization; special tributes from both former Governor Snyder and the State of Michigan legislature; a letter of commendation from former U-M President Schlissel; and several proclamations from regional leaders.
On a more personal note, he is especially passionate about travel, having visited all seven continents, most of them multiple times. He currently serves as a Travel Host for the U-M Alumni Association.
