The University of Michigan’s 73rd Annual
Economic Outlook Conference
November 20–21, 2025
Daniil Manaenkov
Dr. Daniil Manaenkov has been engaged in tracking and forecasting the U.S. economy for almost 20 years. He has been leading RSQE’s national forecasting team since 2013. Prior to joining RSQE, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where he managed the bank's macroeconomic forecasting model.
Daniil testifies regularly in front of the Michigan Legislature and briefs the Governor of Michigan annually on RSQE's national economic outlook. Governor Rick Snyder sent Daniil a personal thank-you letter for his contributions to the state budget process. Daniil frequently shares his views on national economic conditions with various media outlets, with the list of recent interviews featuring CNBC, CGTN America, WXYZ-TV Detroit, NPR's Marketplace, and the Wall Street Journal. Daniil also leads RSQE’s development and adoption of cutting-edge time series and machine learning forecasting methods and contributes to RSQE's forecasting project with the City of Detroit.
Daniil’s main areas of expertise are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and applied econometrics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota, and holds a Master of Science degree in applied mathematics and physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Daniil recently coauthored The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2022–2024, and The Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022–2027.
Joanne Hsu
Joanne W. Hsu (pronounced “shoo”) is the Director of the Surveys of Consumers and a Research Associate Professor at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan.
She earned her PhD in economics at the University of Michigan and her AB in economics and international relations at Brown University. Her research is primarily in the fields of household finance, labor economics, and survey methods, with a current focus on financial sophistication and cognition, and consumer experiences with debt.
She previously served as a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, where her work included the Survey of Consumer of Finances and the consumption forecast, as well as a visiting professor at the Department of Economics, Howard University.
Leo Feler
Leo Feler is Chief Economist at Numerator and a visiting economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
At Numerator, Dr. Feler provides thought leadership and analyses on the US economy and the state of the US consumer to C-suite executives of leading CPGs and retailers and to Wall Street analysts. At the Federal Reserve, Dr. Feler works with a team of economists to nowcast retail sales and inflation using Numerator’s household panel data.
Dr. Feler previously served as senior economist at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and taught MBA-level courses on economic forecasting and emerging markets. Prior to that, Dr. Feler was an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University and a consultant with Boston Consulting Group. Dr. Feler has served as an expert witness on commercial litigation and regulatory matters and has casework experience in mergers & antitrust. He received his PhD in economics from Brown University, his MA in International Policy from Stanford University, and his BA in Economics and International Relations from Stanford University.
Linda Tesar
Linda Tesar is the Alan V. Deardorff Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Michigan and is the advisor to the Dean on the Budget.
Professor Tesar’s research focuses on issues in international finance, with particular interests in the international transmission of business cycles and fiscal policy, the benefits of global risksharing, capital flows to emerging markets, the determination of long run interest rates, international tax competition and the challenges facing the euro area.
She is co-director of the International Finance and Macroeconomics program at the NBER and serves on the Academic Advisory Councils of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and New York. Tesar is also the Chair of CSWEP, the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession.
Aaron Flaaen
Aaron Flaaen is a Principal Economist and Group Manager in the Research and Statistics Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.
In addition to studying the industrial sector and supply chain linkages, his Board-related work centers on exploring expanded economic measurement with non-traditional data sources. His academic research has been published in a variety of peer-reviewed journals and focuses on the causes and consequences of multinational firms and global trade. More recently, his work has focused on the effects of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade dispute on consumer prices and the U.S. manufacturing sector. In 2015, his research was awarded the Young Economist Essay award by the World Trade Organization. Findings from his research have been summarized in major news outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and The Washington Post.
Dr. Flaaen is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, where he has taught international trade theory and policy since 2017. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.
John Ricco
John Ricco is an economic researcher focusing on public finance and statistical computing.
He brings a decade of experience building microsimulation models used for real-world policy analysis in areas such as tax, paid family leave, and public health.
Prior to joining The Budget Lab at Yale, John worked at Penn Wharton Budget Model and the International Monetary Fund.
Betsey Stevenson
Betsey Stevenson is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting associate professor of economics at the University of Sydney, a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a fellow of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, and serves on the executive committee of the American Economic Association. She served as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2015 where she advised President Obama on social policy, labor market, and trade issues. She served as the chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010 to 2011, advising the Secretary of Labor on labor policy and participating as the secretary's deputy to the White House economic team. She has held previous positions at Princeton University and at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
Dr. Stevenson is a labor economist who has published widely in leading economics journals about the labor market and the impact of public policies on outcomes both in the labor market and for families as they adjust to changing labor market opportunities. Her research explores women's labor market experiences, the economic forces shaping the modern family, and how these labor market experiences and economic forces on the family influence each other. She is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and her analysis of economic data and the economy are frequently covered in both print and television media.
Dr Stevenson earned a BA in economics and mathematics from Wellesley College and an MA and PhD in economics from Harvard University.
Michael Horrigan
Michael Horrigan, President of Upjohn Institute since 2019, oversees the study of policy-related research to understand and alleviate the problems of unemployment, the changing nature of employment relationships and the quality of jobs, and place-based policies to improve community prosperity.
The Institute also runs innovative workforce programs in four area counties to directly assist individuals to overcome the barriers they face in finding and keeping good-paying, in-demand jobs. In his role at the Institute, he gives dozens of speeches each year on national, state, and regional macroeconomic and labor trends.
Prior to joining the Institute, Mike oversaw the nation’s employment, unemployment, and inflation measurement programs at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Emily Rolen
Emily Rolen is an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections program at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Since 2014, she has worked as a Lead Economist in the Employment Projections (EP) program. The EP program develops information about the labor market for the nation for 10 years in the future.
Emily is the author of numerous publications, including articles on incorporating AI impacts in the projections, employment projections through the perspective of education, participation of various demographic groups in the labor force. Emily takes pride in producing objective employment projections data that equip educators, researchers, policy makers, and jobseekers with the tools necessary to make informed career decisions.
Gabriel Ehrlich
Gabriel Ehrlich is an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan, where he is the Director of the University’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE).
Gabe oversees RSQE’s forecasts of the U.S. and Michigan economies, and he presents regularly to the Michigan Legislature and Governor on Michigan’s economic and fiscal prospects.
Prior to joining RSQE, Gabe worked as an economic forecaster and analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.
Leslie McGranahan
Leslie McGranahan is senior vice president and director of regional research and engagement at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Her primary research interests relate to the effects of federal, state, and local government policy on individuals and households. She has written about numerous government programs, including the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, and the sales tax. She also closely follows regional and national developments in government spending and revenues.
McGranahan’s research has been published in journals, including the National Tax Journal and Journal of Political Economy. Her work has also been featured in the Chicago Fed Letter and Economic Perspectives, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s publications.
McGranahan returned to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in 2004 after working as a lecturer at the University of Warwick and as research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies in London, England. She received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University and master’s and doctorate degrees in economics from Northwestern University.
David W. Berson
David W. Berson is Chief US Economist for Cumberland Advisors, a mid-sized wealth management firm based in Sarasota, FL. He provides analyses of the US economy and impacts on financial markets for Cumberland's board of directors, portfolio managers, and clients.
Previously, he was the Chief Economist for Nationwide Insurance, where he managed a team of economists and was in charge of providing forecasts and analyses of the economy as well as financial and insurance markets that were used by Nationwide's senior leadership team and business units for strategic and corporate planning purposes. He also acted as Nationwide's primary spokesperson on economic and financial market conditions, prospects, and policy. Berson was previously SVP & Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analytics at the PMI Group, where he headed modeling and forecasting for the company. Prior to that, he was VP & Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, where he advised the company on national and regional economic, housing, and mortgage market policy and conditions. He has also been Chief Financial Economist and Head of Regional Economic Analysis at Wharton Econometrics, Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate School. His government experiences have included Staff Economist on the Council of Economic Advisers and Economic Analyst at the Treasury Department and the Office of the Special Trade Representative.
Berson is currently President of the National Business Economic Issues Council (NBEIC), is a former President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), and is a frequent speaker to media and industry groups on the economy, housing, and financial markets. He has a BA in History and Economics from Williams College, a Master of Public Policy and a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan, and has a Certified Business Economist (CBE) designation from NABE.
Glenn Stevens Jr.
Glenn Stevens Jr. is the executive director of MichAuto and serves as the Detroit Regional Chamber’s vice president of automotive and mobility initiatives. In his role, Stevens provides strategic direction and leadership to MichAuto in its role as the statewide industry association to promote, grow, and retain Michigan’s automotive and next-generation mobility industries. MichAuto is focused on developing the state’s automotive and mobility industry in the key areas of talent, advocacy, awareness, startup innovation, and next-generation mobility and the digital economy. His responsibilities are also centered on strategic fundraising in conjunction with investor engagement and retention.
Stevens has more than 30 years of management, strategy, and operations experience across the automotive, steel, specialty chemicals, and capital equipment industries. For the past 14 years his career has been focused on serving membership-based organizations, communities, and economic development across Michigan.
Prior to joining the Chamber to build MichAuto, Stevens served as senior vice president of Membership and Sales with the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, where he was responsible for membership growth and retention, strategic partnerships, and automotive industry development with states across the nation. Additionally, his previous experience includes leadership positions with Blue Water Automotive Systems, Kolene Corp., and National Steel Corp.
Welcome — John Leahy
John Leahy is Chair of Economics, and Professor of Macroeconomics and Public Policy.
John is a macroeconomist with interests in monetary economics and economic theory. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton, and has held positions at Harvard, Boston University and New York University before joining the faculty at Michigan.
He has consulted at the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and has served as Editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. He also served as Coeditor of the American Economic Review.
Presiding — Michael McWilliams
Michael McWilliams is a Senior Economist at RSQE. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, and he has also received an M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
At RSQE, Michael assists with forecasts of the Michigan economy and leads the development of state tax revenue projections. He also participates in RSQE's local economic forecasts for the City of Detroit, Oakland County, MI, and Washtenaw County, MI. In 2018, Michael coauthored an RSQE report on the economic impacts of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI).
Michael’s personal research focuses on a range of topics in environmental and natural resource economics. During his graduate study, Michael interned at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality.
Presiding — George Fulton
George A. Fulton is a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, and a director emeritus of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics in the Department of Economics. He also is a former Board Chair of the U-M Children’s Centers. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan and is a lifetime member of the U-M Alumni Association.
Dr. Fulton forecast economic and fiscal activity at the national, state, and local levels for over 40 years. He provided testimonies on the economic and revenue outlooks to the Michigan legislature and administration twice a year from 1992 to 2016, as well as delivering a keynote presentation at the Governor’s Economic Outlook Briefing annually from 1984 to 2016. In 2015, he was appointed by the governor and state treasurer to a three-person panel to evaluate and approve the City of Detroit’s revenue forecasts that form the basis for the City’s yearly budgets. He continues to serve in that role.
One focus of his has been to portray the economy to non-economists, including to alumni at Michigania’s faculty forum, to the U-M Retirees Association, to the Wolverine Caucus (alumni working in and around the State Capitol), and during the Road Scholars Tour connecting faculty with residents in communities throughout Michigan. He has received numerous recognitions for his work, including: the inaugural Lifetime Achievement Award for Excellence in Economic and Demographic Analysis—since named in his honor—from REMI, the nation’s most prominent regional forecasting and economic analysis organization; special tributes from both former Governor Snyder and the State of Michigan legislature; a letter of commendation from former U-M President Schlissel; and several proclamations from regional leaders.
Yinuo Zhang
Yinuo Zhang (pronounced "EE-nwoah") is a senior economist at RSQE, where she assists with US forecasts.
Prior to joining RSQE, she received her Ph.D. from Princeton University.
Her personal research centers on the intersection of macroeconomics and labor economics, with a particular emphasis on the home sector.
