Learning the Major: The Role of Early Specialization in Educational and Labor Market Outcomes

This paper examines how the timing of college field specialization affects students’ educational and labor market outcomes. To study this question, I exploit a 2011 policy change at a Midwestern flagship university that incentivized only engineering students to declare a major earlier. I develop a conceptual framework in which students learn about their match quality across majors through course grades while accumulating credits toward graduation. Earlier major declaration increases exposure to major-specific high-level coursework, but also reduces flexibility to exit the initial field as a result of increased specialization, creating a trade-off. The framework generates predictions that I test empirically using a difference-in-differences design. I find that the policy increased within-engineering switching by 75%, reduced exits from engineering by 80%, and improved academic outcomes, as reflected in higher GPAs and a 14% increase in honors graduation rates. LinkedIn-based career data further indicate enhanced early career outcomes in engineering: greater persistence in engineering positions, longer initial job tenure, and a greater likelihood of attaining managerial roles. These results suggest that, in settings where students retain flexibility in major selection, incentivizing early major declaration can improve student-major match quality.