ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The winters that organize life in the Great Lakes region and beyond are becoming unpredictable.
That has implications for everything from ice fishing to the spread of disease.
“What we are losing is not just cold, it is the seasonal synchronization that ecosystems, infrastructure, economies and communities were built around,” said Dr. Aimée Classen, director of the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) and a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at U-M.
Classen, an ecosystem and global change ecologist, will moderate a panel discussion titled “Changing Michigan Winters” from 3 to 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 8, in Weiser Hall 1010 on Ann Arbor Main Campus.
The free, public event kicks off Water@Michigan’s Fall 2026 Coffee Talk series, which focuses on envisioning resilient Great Lakes futures. During monthly panels, experts from U-M and across the Midwest will examine opportunities, challenges and innovations shaping the region's water resources, communities and ecosystems. Water@Michigan is a cross campus initiative with facilitation support offered by Dr. Mike Shriberg, director of the U-M Water Center, and Dr. Lauren Mullenbach, an assistant research scientist with Michigan Sea Grant and the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability (SEAS).
“Water@Michigan brings together our community to focus on the most pressing issues facing our watershed, communities and region,” said Shriberg, who also is a professor in SEAS. “How our winters are changing in our region is critical to this conversation.”
The study of “Changing Winters” is an emerging area of research excellence at UMBS.
The historic research and teaching campus founded in 1909 comprises more than 10,000 forested acres surrounded by rivers, lakes and wetlands in Pellston, about 20 miles south of the Mackinac Bridge.
Holding more than a century of scientific records and year-round infrastructure, UMBS is one of the most well-studied places on the planet showing change over time.
Targeting all facets of changing winters, the field station brings together an interdisciplinary group of researchers spanning ecology, climate science, hydrology, engineering, microbiology, public health and human dimensions across eight U-M schools and colleges.
“Winter is not an inactive season,” Classen said. “It’s the organizing force that has been ignored for far too long.”
She said winter synchronizes when water and nutrients are stored and released, when plants grow and animals move, when nutrients cycle, pathogens spread, and ecosystems recover. It is also the time of year when the Great Lakes evaporate most of their water.
Classen’s research group has been exploring how changes in winter — snowpack, freeze-thaw events and nutrient transport — impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.
“Human systems including roads, water infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and public health were built around seasonal rhythms that are now increasingly unstable,” Classen said. “When winter becomes unpredictable, those systems decouple, and the consequences cascade in ways we are only beginning to understand.”
The coffee talk on Sept. 8 will include Dr. Ayumi Fujisake-Manome, the associate director of the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR) and an associate research scientist, and Dr. Jacob Napieralski, the director of the Environmental Interpretative Center and a professor of geology at U-M Dearborn.
A physical oceanographer and lake ice scientist, Fujisaki-Manome models the coupled atmosphere-ice-lake dynamics of the Great Lakes and Alaska’s coastal oceans, with particular focus on how heat waves, cold spells and large-scale atmospheric patterns drive variability in lake ice formation and loss. Her work is foundational to understanding how changing winters are restructuring Great Lakes and Alaskan physical systems. She recently advised a masters’ project that studied how changing winters impact communities from a socio-economic perspective.
Napieralski’s academic expertise centers on the application of geospatial technology to study impacts of environmental change on water and risks.
An expert in urban hydrogeomorphology, Napieralski’s research explores the intersection of water systems and society. He specializes in urban water management, watershed analysis and flood risk equity.
The University of Michigan Biological Station serves as a gathering place to learn from the natural world, advance research and education, and inspire action. We leverage over a century of research and transformative experiences to drive discoveries and solutions to benefit Michigan and beyond.
Our vast campus engages all of the senses. Its remote, natural setting nurtures deep thought and scientific discovery.
Founded in 1909, UMBS supports long-term research and education through immersive, field-based courses and features state-of-the-art equipment and facilities for data collection and analysis to help any field researcher be productive. It is where students and scientists from across the globe live and work as a community to learn from the place.
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