COMPLEX SYSTEMS SEMINAR | Long-term Relationships and Routes of HIV Transmission

The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission that occurs within stable partnerships, as opposed to among single people, or in extra-couple relationships, is a subject of active debate, with strong relevance for planning public-health strategies. We use a hazard-based approach to try to disentangle routes of transmission in DHS survey data covering 27,000 couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We also examine the dynamic underpinnings of this question with a dynamic model. We conclude that all three routes are important, and that intervention strategies should therefore be targeted broadly.