These policy recommendations for the incoming US administration reflect discussion among experts from the United States, the United Kingdom, European Union member states, Ukraine, and Russia convened at the University of Michigan on December 2-3 and hosted by the Weiser Center for Europe and Eurasia and the Atlantic Council.

Russia—supported by China, Iran, and North Korea—remains a threat the United States and Europe must tackle through strength and resolve. If unchecked, Russia’s malign actions, including its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, will damage US political, military, and economic interests in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. President Donald Trump has an opportunity to conduct a more effective pressure campaign against Russia and seek an end to the war. Doing so will thwart Russia and its allies and reduce the chances of World War III.

A winning strategy requires security and eventual membership in NATO and the European Union for Ukraine. Ukraine has made clear its willingness to join negotiations to end the war, while senior officials in the Russian government have dismissed offers for negotiations of a peaceful settlement. US interests will advance if Ukraine remains free and sovereign, and Russia fails in its aggressive war and is deterred in the future. Recommendations for the next US administration include:

  • An early ceasefire along the existing lines can suspend the high-intensity war but must be linked with provisions for Ukraine’s security. A ceasefire must be enforced by troops on the ground. NATO’s European members should lead this effort, with US backup support.
  • Defense guarantees will be a prerequisite to a durable end to the war. Eventual NATO membership is the optimal way to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. Ukraine’s accession to NATO is not to be negotiated with Russia but should be settled between the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine.
  • A NATO defense of Ukraine can be built on the foundation of its resources, fighting spirit, cutting-edge military technology, and battle-hardened army. This army, though the most powerful in Europe outside of Russia, will still need to be reinforced with outside support. The increasing capabilities of European militaries can provide additional backing that the Ukrainians need to deter a future war. US arms will be essential to this.
  • As with West Germany, which joined NATO in 1955, NATO’s defense guarantee would apply only to that part of Ukrainian territory under control of the Ukrainian government. The United States should reject Russia’s demand for forced neutrality and de facto disarmament for Ukraine.
  • The United States and Europe should not recognize Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory and reject any change to borders by force—as done in the Stimson Doctrine of 1932 (Manchuria), the Welles Declaration of 1940 (Baltic states), and the Pompeo Declaration of 2018 (Crimea).
  • As a NATO member, Ukraine would commit to restore its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders through peaceful and diplomatic means. Before its accession, allies would take additional steps to integrate Ukraine into the Alliance, in particular by offering Ukraine a permanent seat at the North Atlantic Council and a Ukrainian general a seat at the Military Committee.
  • Europe must do more for Ukraine’s security and its own. The United States and Europe should bolster joint activities and investments in their defense industries.
  • The United States and its allies need a new policy of containment of Russia. This also includes maintaining hold on the immobilized Russian sovereign assets and restrictions on technology, and caution in lifting sanctions. There should be no return to reliance on Russian energy or other resources. Allies should be prepared to intensify economic pressure and make Russia pay the price should it violate ceasefire terms.
  • The actions outlined here, which can earn the necessary Ukrainian public support, will bring peace to Europe, advance the security and prosperity of the United States and its allies, provide a check to would-be aggressors, and restore American global leadership: a clear winning strategy.

The following experts participated in the discussions at the University of Michigan Symposium on the Future of Ukraine in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Their participation contributed to the recommendations above. No one participant is responsible for the recommendations and participation does not necessarily imply endorsement of all recommendations.

  • Minna Ålander, research fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Stephen E. Biegun, former US deputy secretary of state
  • Ian Bond, deputy director, Centre for European Reform
  • Sławomir Dębski, professor of strategy and international relations, College of Europe in Natolin
  • Daniel Fried, Weiser Family distinguished fellow, Atlantic Council; former assistant secretary of state for European affairs
  • Alina Frolova, deputy chair, Center for Defense Strategies; former deputy minister of defense of Ukraine
  • François Heisbourg, senior advisor for Europe, International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • John E. Herbst, senior director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; former US ambassador to Ukraine
  • Assia Ivantcheva, former Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe official
  • Natalie Jaresko, former minister of finance of Ukraine; distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
  • Dmytro Kuleba, former minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine
  • Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director, Russia and Eurasia Program, head of Ukraine forum, Chatham House
  • Vladimir Milov, research associate, Wilfried Martins Centre for European Studies; former deputy minister of energy of the Russian Federation
  • Hryhoriy Nemyria, first deputy chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee, Parliament of Ukraine
  • Alina Polyakova, president and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
  • William B. Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine
  • Geneviève Zubrzycki, Weiser Family Professor in European and Eurasian Studies, professor of sociology, and director, Weiser Center for Europe and Eurasia, University of Michigan

This article also appears on the Atlantic Council website.