We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotational invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression. Our analysis suggests that the fiscal transfers shocks can explain the bulk of the contributions to the post-pandemic in- creases inflation until mid 2021. Thereafter, inflation has been mainly driven by supply chain and demand shocks. In addition, we find that fiscal transfers were essential for preventing a decline in real output per capita similar to the one experienced during the Great Depression.
| Building: | Lorch Hall |
|---|---|
| Website: | |
| Event Type: | Workshop / Seminar |
| Tags: | Econometrics, Economics, Macroeconomics, seminar |
| Source: | Happening @ Michigan from Department of Economics, Econometrics, Michael Beauregard Seminar in Macroeconomics, Department of Economics Seminars |
