When Donald Trump was first elected President of the United States, Ann Lin, an associate professor of public policy and the director of the LRCCS, led a group of U-M students to China. During a visit to the American consulate in Shanghai, they were surprised to learn that China might have preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton. “The Chinese are transactional,” Lin recalled hearing from U.S. diplomats. “They believe that Trump, as a businessman, will not be constrained by outdated diplomatic protocols, human rights issues, or other concerns. Instead, he will focus on striking a deal with China.”
However, contrary to Chinese expectations, the following four years saw escalating tensions and conflicts between the two nations, marked by the trade war, security concerns and the Taiwan issue. As Trump began his second term, questions arose about the future of U.S.-China relations. At the Asia in the Headlines Symposium at U-M, experts weighed in on potential developments.
Mark Magnier, the U.S. deputy bureau chief of the South China Morning Post, predicted that tensions over cybersecurity, election meddling, and technology would persist between the two countries. “I don’t foresee a win-win solutions in the near future. These two countries will likely continue to adjust, grapple and crunch and muscle it out,” he stated.
Magnier argued that both parties have made significant missteps, leading to the current state of relations. He referenced the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s famous mantra, “hide your strength and bide your time,” which facilitated China’s rapid and subtle rise on the global stage. However, following the global financial crisis, Xi jingping and his leadership team witnessed the collapse of the U.S. banking and real estate sectors. This led to the misguided belief that the West was in decline and that it was China’s moment to ascend. In turn, they abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s cautionary approach and implemented a series of policies that proved detrimental to Beijing’s position. On the U.S. side,
Magnier noted that the country has struggled to adapt to China’s very different political system, and has yet to make the necessary adjustments. “I think this will play out even more under the second Trump administration.” Magnier concluded.
Yun Sun, director of China program at Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, argued that U.S. – China relations under Trump’s second term are likely to remain unpredictable, as Trump’s well-known tendency for erratic decision-making. The precise trajectory of his China policy is uncertain and will be largely shaped by China's response to his actions. However, two central aspects of Trump’s approach are evident: First, he is deeply committed to securing deals, but these deals must always favor him personally. Secondly, Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy is likely to persist or intensify in his second term. This tactic involves exerting significant economic and political pressure on other nations, including China, to align with U.S. interests. During his first term, Trump utilized tariffs, trade restrictions, and sanctions as tools to leverage U.S. power over China, primarily aiming to address trade imbalances and negotiate more favorable terms for the U.S. This strategy, rooted in a principle of forceful measures, seeks to compel the opposing side to make concessions rather than relying on traditional diplomatic channels.
